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Every season, fans argue that the NFL is “rigged.” After a tough call or a strange ending, social media fills with claims that the league is scripting outcomes to boost ratings or keep certain teams in the spotlight. It is a fair question to ask: can the NFL fix games legally? This article explains what “fixing” really means, what the law says, how the NFL governs integrity, and where the real gray areas are. The short version is simple: no, the NFL cannot legally fix games. But the longer story is important, because leagues do have legal ways to shape a season without deciding who wins a specific game. Understanding that difference will help you watch, bet, and debate with more confidence.
The Short Answer: No, the NFL Cannot Legally Fix Games
Fixing a game means controlling or predetermining the outcome of a contest. In the United States, that is illegal. Federal and state laws make it a crime to influence sporting events through bribes, coercion, or schemes. Even if the league called itself “entertainment,” it could not market games as competitive sport while secretly deciding results. That would be fraud.
The NFL also bans any kind of game manipulation in its own rules. Players, coaches, officials, and team staff must follow strict integrity and gambling policies. Violations can lead to suspensions, fines, and permanent bans. In short, both the law and the league’s rules make game-fixing off-limits.
What Does “Fixing” a Game Really Mean?
Classic Match-Fixing
Classic match-fixing is when someone pays or pressures a player, coach, or referee to make sure one team wins. This can include throwing the game, intentionally playing poorly, or making calls that change the score. Paying insiders to lose on purpose is the clearest form of fixing.
Spot-Fixing and Subtle Control
Spot-fixing is when a small part of the game is manipulated, like the first penalty, a specific play, or a number of points in a quarter. In the betting era, even small events may be targets for manipulation. Legally, spot-fixing is no different if it is done through bribery or deception to affect wagers or outcomes. It is still illegal.
League-Level Influence Versus Fixing
There is a big difference between fixing and running a league. The NFL can set schedules, change rules, assign referees, and focus on certain points of emphasis. Those choices can influence how teams succeed over a season. But unless the league predetermines winners of specific games or directs officials to make certain calls for a result, that is not fixing. It is governance. League-wide policy is legal; secretly deciding outcomes is not.
The Laws That Make Fixing Illegal
The Sports Bribery Act
The main federal law is the Sports Bribery Act of 1964 (18 U.S.C. § 224). It makes it a crime to influence any sporting contest by bribery. That includes paying players, coaches, referees, or other participants. The law applies to professional sports, including the NFL. It also covers attempts and conspiracies, not just completed fixes.
Wire Fraud and Related Crimes
Even without a clear bribe, other laws can apply. Wire fraud and mail fraud statutes make it illegal to use communication systems to carry out schemes that deceive others. If a league or its insiders lied to the public, sportsbooks, or media about the true nature of a contest, that could be fraud. Organizing a scheme across state lines can also trigger conspiracy and racketeering charges.
State Sports Bribery Laws
Most states have their own sports bribery laws. These can be even broader, covering any payment or benefit intended to affect how a contest is played. State prosecutors and gaming regulators can bring cases if manipulation touches their jurisdiction.
Consumer Protection and Gambling Regulation
Modern sports betting adds another layer. When fans bet on games, they rely on honest competition. If a league marketed fair contests but secretly predetermined results, it could be accused of unfair or deceptive acts under consumer protection laws. State gaming regulators can also take action if manipulation affects betting markets. In short, the legal system has many tools to punish fixing, even if a pure bribe is not proven.
“It’s Just Entertainment” Is Not a Legal Escape Hatch
Why the WWE Analogy Does Not Fit
Some people argue that if the NFL called itself “sports entertainment,” it could script outcomes like professional wrestling. That is not true. Pro wrestling works because the shows are understood to be scripted. The audience and business partners know it is a performance. Sportsbooks treat it differently. In contrast, the NFL sells games as real competitions. You cannot legally market a contest as real while secretly choosing winners.
Advertising and Fraud
If a league lied about competition being honest, that could be fraud. Fans buy tickets, watch broadcasts, and place bets with the understanding that teams are trying to win. That trust is not a small detail. It is the core promise of sport. Breaking that promise while profiting from it can be criminal and civil misconduct.
Ticket Terms Do Not Waive Fraud
Sometimes people say the fine print on tickets protects leagues from lawsuits. Courts generally reject that idea when it comes to deception. Terms of use can limit refunds for schedule changes or weather delays. They cannot protect a league that intentionally misleads the public about the nature of a contest. Contract clauses do not legalize cheating.
What the NFL’s Own Rules Require
Commissioner’s “Best Interests” Power
The NFL Constitution and Bylaws give the Commissioner authority to act in the “best interests” of the game. This power is broad. It allows investigations, fines, suspensions, loss of draft picks, and other discipline. The purpose is to protect fairness and public confidence. If someone tried to influence a game, the Commissioner could act swiftly, even without a criminal case.
Gambling and Integrity Policies
The NFL has strict gambling rules. Players cannot bet on NFL games. Coaches, referees, and team staff cannot bet on any sports at work and cannot bet on NFL contests at all. Sharing inside information or failing to report improper approaches is a punishable offense. The league also uses integrity services to monitor betting markets and detect unusual patterns that might suggest manipulation.
Obligations of Players, Coaches, and Officials
Everyone who works in the NFL agrees to follow rules that protect the integrity of the game. That includes reporting bribe offers, improper conduct, and suspicious behavior. The league can ban individuals for life in extreme cases. The message is simple: the game’s reputation is non-negotiable.
Historical Scandals and What They Tell Us
Referee Scandals in Other Sports
The NBA’s Tim Donaghy case is a warning. Donaghy, an NBA referee, bet on games and gave inside information. He also admitted to making calls that affected point spreads. That scandal shows that individuals can do harm. It also shows why leagues must invest in oversight, data, and discipline. The existence of one case does not mean a league fixes games, but it proves that strong safeguards are necessary.
High-Profile NFL Controversies
The NFL has seen major controversies, like the Patriots’ Spygate, Deflategate, and the Saints’ Bountygate. Those cases involved rule-breaking to gain an edge, not league-led fixing. The league punished teams and individuals. Importantly, these scandals show how invasive NFL investigations can be when integrity is at stake.
Tanking Allegations
Fans often worry about “tanking,” or losing on purpose to get a better draft pick. In the NFL, accusations of ownership offering money to lose games have surfaced, including in a lawsuit filed by former coach Brian Flores. The NFL investigated and said it did not find evidence of payment-for-loss schemes. If such payments did happen, they could violate federal law and league rules. There is a clear legal difference between a team trading veterans for future assets, which is allowed, and paying bonuses to lose, which is not.
Lawsuits by Fans and Bettors
After big officiating errors, fans and bettors sometimes sue. Courts have generally dismissed these cases. Judges tend to say that sports leagues are not guarantors of perfect officiating and that disappointed bettors cannot collect damages for game outcomes. However, if there were hard evidence of true fixing by insiders, a case could look very different. So far, those cases usually fail because they cannot show intentional deception by the league to control results.
Refereeing Controversies Are Not the Same as Fixing
Human Error Is Inevitable
NFL games are fast and complex. Officials make real-time judgments under pressure. Errors will happen. A missed penalty or a ticky-tack call can change a game, especially in the playoffs. That does not make it a fix. Honest mistakes are part of sport. The key question is whether those mistakes form a pattern suggesting intent. Most data does not support that claim.
Replay and Rules Emphasis
Each year, the NFL issues directions to emphasize certain fouls, like illegal contact or roughing the passer. That can shift the balance between offense and defense. Better quarterbacks might benefit. That is still policy, not fixing. Replay rules also change how games are decided. One year, a catch might be defined one way; the next year, it is different. These changes can feel unfair in the moment but are part of managing the sport.
Assignments and Grading
Officials are graded and assigned based on performance. The NFL does not publish all grading details, which creates suspicion. More transparency would help trust. But a lack of public grading does not equal a fix. The league’s internal system tries to put the best officials in the biggest games. Debate about specific crews will continue, but that is not evidence of a rigged result.
Legal Ways the NFL Can Shape a Season
The Schedule
Scheduling has real effects. Short weeks, long trips, and late-season cold games can shape performance. Prime-time slots increase pressure. The league builds schedules for competitive balance, stadium availability, and TV partners. These choices can influence records but do not tell a referee to decide a specific game. It is legal and normal league management.
Rule Changes and Points of Emphasis
Rules can boost scoring or defense. Protecting quarterbacks, adjusting pass interference, or changing kickoff rules will alter outcomes across many games. Leagues do this to improve safety and entertainment. Some teams benefit more than others. That is not fixing a single game; it is evolving the sport.
Salary Cap, Draft Order, and Compensatory Picks
The cap and draft are designed for parity. Bad teams pick earlier. Teams that lose free agents may get compensatory picks. These systems shape who becomes strong a year or two later. The league can tweak formulas, but it does not select winners of individual matchups. Think of these tools as ecosystem controls, not game outcomes.
Discipline and Suspensions
When players break rules, the timing of suspensions can influence specific games. That can frustrate fans. Still, the goal is to apply discipline consistently and fairly based on policy. If a star misses a crucial game due to a suspension, that is a consequence of rules, not a plot to rig a result. The same is true for injury reporting. Transparency helps bettors and opponents prepare, but injuries are part of the sport’s reality.
Mid-Season Officiating Guidance
During a season, the league can remind officials to watch for certain fouls. If offensive holding spikes or defensive fouls fall, it might be due to a memo. This kind of guidance can swing style of play, but it is general and public to teams. It is not an order to change a score. The intent is consistency, even if the effect feels uneven.
The Betting Era Raises the Stakes
Integrity Monitoring
With legal sports betting expanding, suspicious activity is easier to spot. The NFL partners with integrity firms that track betting lines and volumes worldwide. If unusual bets flood in right before a game, alerts go out. This helps catch potential insider activity or manipulation attempts.
Player Suspensions for Betting
Several NFL players have been suspended for violations of the gambling policy. The league has sent a clear message: do not bet on the NFL, and do not bet at work on any sport if you are restricted. These rules protect public trust and aim to prevent even the appearance of impropriety.
Data, Injury Reports, and Transparency
Sportsbooks and regulators rely on accurate injury reports. The NFL requires teams to report player status truthfully. Hiding injuries to influence betting markets can lead to penalties. As betting grows, expect stricter audits and more data sharing to support market integrity.
Regulatory Pressure
States license sportsbooks and can investigate if they suspect rigging or insider misuse. If games were fixed, sportsbooks would suffer losses and cooperate with authorities. This shared interest adds another layer of protection. The NFL cannot risk those relationships or the legal trouble that would follow.
Could the NFL Ever “Script” Games and Make It Legal?
What Would Have to Change
For scripted outcomes to be legal, the NFL would have to openly tell the public that games are predetermined performances. Broadcasters, sponsors, ticket buyers, and sportsbooks would need to agree to that model. Bettors would stop treating games as contests of skill. In other words, the NFL would stop being a sports league as we know it. That is not realistic.
Why It Will Not Happen
The NFL’s value depends on public faith in real competition. Media rights, licensing, and team values all rely on that trust. If the league admitted to scripting, it would destroy its brand and face a wave of legal consequences for past conduct. The incentives go the other way: more transparency, stronger rules, and harsher penalties for those who threaten integrity.
If You Suspect Wrongdoing, What Can You Do?
Internal Reporting
The NFL encourages reporting of integrity concerns through teams and the league office. Employees and players have confidential channels. If you are within the league and see something, report it. The system is built to protect whistleblowers in serious matters.
State Gaming Regulators
If you are a bettor and see suspicious patterns tied to betting markets, you can contact your state’s gaming control board. Regulators coordinate with sportsbooks and leagues and can push for investigations when needed.
Civil Lawsuits
Suits by fans and bettors usually fail when the claim is just “the refs were bad.” Courts rarely award damages for officiating mistakes. Without evidence of intentional deception or bribery, a case is unlikely to succeed. That said, documented proof of fixing could change the legal landscape. Evidence is everything.
Independent Scrutiny
Journalists, data analysts, and academics study officiating patterns and betting lines. Independent work can reveal trends and keep pressure on leagues to improve. Public conversation also nudges the NFL toward more transparency in rules, replay, and officiating reports.
How to Think About Fairness as a Fan or Bettor
Separate Frustration from Evidence
Heartbreaking calls happen. A single missed penalty is not proof of a fix. Look for consistent patterns across many games, not one play. Data on penalty rates, home-field effects, and officiating crews is more useful than an emotional moment after a loss.
Watch the Right Signals
If you care about integrity, track injury report accuracy, late betting line moves, and how replay is applied in similar situations. These signals can show whether the system is consistent. Errors will still happen, but the question is whether they balance out over time or point to favoritism.
Bet Smart
Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Use disciplined bankroll management. Focus on teams, matchups, and injuries, not conspiracy theories. If you genuinely think a contest is rigged, the rational choice is to avoid betting on it rather than chase the idea with bigger wagers.
Common Misconceptions
The League Wants Big Markets in the Super Bowl
It is true that big-market teams can draw ratings. But TV money is already locked in by contracts. The NFL’s business does not depend on one team making the Super Bowl. Upsets and underdog stories help ratings too. The risk of fixing would far outweigh any small gain in viewership.
Referees Are Paid to Favor Stars
Star players may get the benefit of the doubt because of their style and reputation. That is a bias to reduce, not a fix. The NFL trains officials to standardize calls. Data still shows variation by crew and game conditions. This is a judgment problem, not evidence of a plot.
TV Partners Influence Calls
Broadcasters want close games and exciting finishes, but they do not control officials. The optics of a network steering penalties would be disastrous. The league and its partners earn far more long-term by protecting credibility than by squeezing a few extra ratings points through imaginary manipulation.
Leaked “Scripts” Prove It
Occasionally, social media shares fake “scripts” for a season. These are jokes or hoaxes. If the NFL truly wrote scripts, thousands of people would need to be in on it—players, coaches, officials, TV crews, and gamblers. Secrets that big do not stay hidden. No credible evidence supports the idea of scripted games.
Where the NFL Can Improve Trust
More Officiating Transparency
Publishing more detailed grading and discipline for officials could reduce suspicion. Clearer explanations on controversial calls help, too. The league has made progress with postgame pool reports and weekly videos. It can go further with standardized breakdowns and data sharing.
Replay Consistency
Fans get angry when replay seems random. Tightening review standards, clarifying what is reviewable, and aligning calls across crews would help. When rules change, the league should give clear examples and timelines so viewers know what to expect.
Integrity Audits
Independent integrity audits of officiating and data systems would build confidence. Even if the audits do not go public in full, summaries and high-level findings can reassure fans and bettors that safeguards are real and improving.
What About Tanking and the Draft?
Tanking Without Bribes
Teams might trade veterans, rest injured players, or prioritize development when a season is lost. That can look like tanking but can be legal strategy focused on the future. It becomes illegal when ownership pays or orders people to lose or when someone manipulates play for betting purposes.
Draft Incentives
The NFL draft order rewards bad teams with higher picks. Some argue for a lottery to reduce incentives to lose. That debate will continue. But even under the current system, the line is clear: long-term planning is allowed; deliberate in-game losing or paid losing is not.
The Big Picture: Incentives Favor Honest Competition
Reputation Is the NFL’s Most Valuable Asset
The NFL’s wealth flows from trust: that games are competitive, outcomes are genuine, and champions earn their titles. Players risk injury. Fans invest time and emotion. Sponsors invest money. Any real scandal of league-level fixing would cause massive legal harm and business damage. The incentives point one way: keep the game honest and be seen doing it.
Errors Are Inevitable, Accountability Is Essential
Because humans run the sport, mistakes will continue. The right approach is not to deny errors but to correct them. Better rules, better technology, and better communication help. When people break rules, discipline must be real and swift. That is how a league shows it takes integrity seriously.
Conclusion
So, can the NFL fix games legally? No. The law forbids it, and the league’s own rules reject it. The NFL can and does shape the sport through schedules, rules, and discipline—those are legal governance tools that affect styles of play and season-long narratives. But they are not the same as ordering a team to win or lose a specific game. In the modern betting era, integrity monitoring, state regulation, and the league’s policies all tighten the net against manipulation. If you are a fan or bettor, expect human mistakes but demand transparency and accountability. That is the right standard for a living sport played and judged by humans. The NFL’s long-term success depends on that standard, and the law backs it up.