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If you have heard broadcasters, analysts, or die-hard fans talk about EPA in football and wondered what on earth it means, you are not alone. Modern football is full of new stats and acronyms, and EPA might be one of the most useful once you understand it. The good news is that the idea behind EPA is simple: it tells you how much a single play actually changed the team’s chances of scoring points next. In other words, EPA turns every play into a clear plus or minus based on real game context, not just yards gained.
This article explains EPA in plain English, step by step. We will look at what EPA stands for, how it is calculated, why it can be more informative than traditional stats, and how fans, analysts, and coaches use it to understand the game better. By the end, you will be able to read EPA charts, talk about EPA/play like a pro, and make sense of how specific plays and players help or hurt their teams beyond the box score.
What Is EPA?
EPA stands for Expected Points Added. It is a play-by-play statistic in American football that measures how much a single play increases or decreases a team’s expected points. It puts a number on the value of each play, adjusted for game situation—down, distance, field position, and more.
The short version
EPA tells you how much a play moved the needle. If a play makes it more likely that the offense will score next, it has positive EPA. If a play hurts those chances—like a sack or interception—it has negative EPA.
Why fans and analysts use it
Traditional stats (like total yards or passer rating) can be misleading because they do not account for context. A six-yard gain on 3rd-and-8 looks fine on paper but failed to pick up a first down; EPA will show that as a negative play. Meanwhile, a three-yard run on 3rd-and-2 is a big win; EPA shows that value clearly.
The Building Block: Expected Points
To understand EPA, you first need to understand Expected Points (EP). Expected Points is the average number of points a team can expect to score next from a specific game situation, based on years of historical data. That game situation includes the down, distance, yard line, time left, and sometimes score and timeouts.
What are Expected Points?
Think of EP like the weather forecast for scoring. If it is 1st-and-10 at your own 25-yard line, historical data might say teams score about 1.0 to 1.2 points on average before the other team scores next. Move to the opponent’s 20-yard line, and your expected points might jump to around 4.0. If you are pinned at your own 1-yard line, your EP could be near zero or even slightly negative because there is a real risk of a safety or a quick punt that gives your opponent great field position.
What goes into an EP model?
Different sites and analysts build their own EP models, but they usually include these ingredients:
– Down and distance (1st-and-10 vs. 3rd-and-12 matters a lot)
– Field position (yard line)
– Time remaining and quarter
– Score differential (optional in some models)
– Timeouts (sometimes)
– Era and league (NFL vs. college differ)
From all those inputs, the model produces a single number: how many points a team can expect to score next. That is the baseline used to calculate EPA for a play.
Simple examples of EP
– 1st-and-10 at your own 25: EP about 1.1 points
– 1st-and-10 at midfield (50-yard line): EP about 2.0 points
– 1st-and-goal at the 8: EP about 5.0 points
– 4th-and-10 at your own 10: EP close to zero or negative because you will likely punt, and your opponent will start with great field position
These numbers are not exact and can vary by model and season, but they give you the basic feel.
How EPA Is Calculated
The formula for a single play is straightforward:
EPA = EP after the play − EP before the play
That is it. You take the expected points of the situation before the snap, then subtract it from the expected points after the whistle. The difference is how much the play helped or hurt the offense’s scoring outlook.
Walk-through example: a simple run
Start: 1st-and-10 at your own 25-yard line, EP = 1.1 points.
Play: The running back gains 8 yards.
Now: 2nd-and-2 at your own 33, EP might be about 1.6 points.
EPA for that play = 1.6 − 1.1 = +0.5 EPA. That is a strong positive play because it moved the chains closer and increased the offense’s scoring chances.
Example: an incompletion
Start: 1st-and-10 at midfield, EP = 2.0 points.
Play: Incomplete pass.
Now: 2nd-and-10 at midfield, EP might drop to about 1.6 points.
EPA = 1.6 − 2.0 = −0.4. Negative, because you lost a down and did not improve field position.
Example: a sack
Start: 2nd-and-8 at the opponent’s 30, EP = 3.3 points (you are in or near field goal range).
Play: QB is sacked for an 8-yard loss.
Now: 3rd-and-16 at the 38, EP might fall to about 2.2 points.
EPA = 2.2 − 3.3 = −1.1. Big negative play because it pushed the offense out of easy field goal range and set up a long third down.
Example: an interception
Start: 3rd-and-6 at the opponent’s 25, EP = about 3.8 points.
Play: Interception, returned to the defender’s 40-yard line.
Now: The offense’s EP becomes the defense’s EP. If the opponent now has 1st-and-10 at their own 40, their EP might be about 1.6 points.
EPA for the offense = EP after (which is now the opponent’s EP credited to the defense) minus EP before = 1.6 − 3.8 = −2.2 EPA for the offense. Turnovers swing EPA hard because they flip possession and field position.
Example: a touchdown
Start: 1st-and-goal at the 5, EP = about 5.8 points.
Play: Touchdown. The value after the play is typically set to 7.0 points for a made extra point (or sometimes 6.9 if the model bakes in XP chance; details vary).
EPA = 7.0 − 5.8 = +1.2 EPA for that specific play. The drive may have had many positive plays, but this one added the final chunk of value.
EPA/Play: A Clean Measure of Efficiency
While a single play’s EPA tells you what happened on that snap, EPA becomes most useful when you average it over many plays. EPA per play (or EPA/play) captures how efficient a player, unit, or team is on a per-snap basis, adjusted for situation.
Why averaging matters
Football is noisy. One play can be fluky. But over hundreds of snaps, EPA/play smooths out randomness and shows which teams really move the ball consistently, avoid drive-killing mistakes, and string together first downs and scores. It is a more complete view than just yards or points per game because it tracks quality of plays in context.
Offense, defense, and special teams
– Offensive EPA/play tells you how much an offense increases expected points each snap. The best offenses are above zero by a healthy margin.
– Defensive EPA/play often flips the sign to show how much a defense reduces the opponent’s expected points per snap. More negative is better for defense, because it means they are knocking the opponent’s chances down.
– Special teams EPA includes punts, kickoffs, field goals, and returns. A blocked punt, a long kickoff return, or a missed field goal shows up clearly here.
EPA and Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks often get measured by EPA per dropback. That includes pass attempts, sacks, scrambles, and penalties on passing plays. It is a strong snapshot of a QB’s total impact on the passing game because it captures decision-making, accuracy, pocket presence, and the ability to avoid bad outcomes.
EPA per dropback explained
Dropbacks include more than just pass attempts. If a QB takes a sack, EPA will penalize him heavily because it harms expected points. If he scrambles for a first down on 3rd-and-long, EPA will reward that play strongly. This paints a fuller picture than yards per attempt, which ignores sacks entirely.
Supporting cast matters
A quarterback’s EPA is influenced by the offensive line, receivers, play caller, and defensive strength faced. EPA does not try to assign credit perfectly among teammates; it summarizes the net effect of the passing plays when that QB is involved. Analysts sometimes adjust for strength of schedule or split EPA by play type to dig deeper.
How EPA Compares to Other Stats
EPA is not the only stat in town. It pairs well with other metrics, and understanding the differences helps you read the numbers correctly.
EPA vs. yards (and yards per attempt)
Yards treat all situations equally. EPA does not. A 7-yard gain is not always good, and a 2-yard gain is not always bad. On 3rd-and-1, a 2-yard run is a big win (EPA positive). On 3rd-and-12, a 7-yard pass that forces a punt is a loss (EPA negative). EPA maps performance to what actually helps the team score.
EPA vs. success rate
Success rate labels a play as successful or unsuccessful by whether it achieves a certain share of the needed yards (for example, 50 percent of yards to go on first down, 70 percent on second, 100 percent on third and fourth). It is useful, but it treats all successes as equal. EPA measures the size of the win or loss. A 60-yard touchdown and a 2-yard conversion on 3rd-and-1 both count as successes, but EPA shows the 60-yard score as far more valuable.
EPA vs. WPA (Win Probability Added)
Win Probability Added looks at how a play changes the chances of winning the game, not just expected points. WPA is more sensitive to time and score. A 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-3 late in the fourth quarter might swing WPA much more than the same play in the first quarter. EPA captures field position and down-and-distance leverage; WPA captures game leverage tied to the clock and score.
EPA vs. DVOA and QBR
DVOA is a drive- and play-level value metric built by Football Outsiders that adjusts performance for situation and opponent. QBR is ESPN’s quarterback metric that blends EPA-like concepts with credit assignment and adjustments. EPA is simpler and more transparent: it is the raw expected-point change. It is great as a foundation; more complicated systems build on it.
How Coaches Use EPA in Decisions
EPA can inform strategy across downs, field position, and game states. It offers a rational, evidence-based way to weigh risks and rewards.
Fourth-down choices
Should you go for it on 4th-and-1 at the opponent’s 45? EPA can help. If converting keeps your drive alive with strong EP (say, from 2.2 to 2.8), and the chance of conversion is high, the expected EPA of going for it can beat punting (which might drop EP to around 1.3 for your opponent, implying a smaller benefit). This is the logic behind many “go for it” recommendations: the upside of keeping the ball often outweighs the cost of a failed try, especially near midfield or in opponent territory.
Run-pass balance
EPA shows that passes generally have higher average value than runs, especially on early downs, though they are more volatile. Teams that pass more on early downs tend to have stronger EPA/play because they create first downs and chunk plays before defenses know what is coming. EPA does not say “never run,” but it helps identify when and where runs are most efficient (for example, short yardage, favorable boxes, or to keep defenses honest).
Early-down aggression
First and second downs offer the most potential to grow EP. Aggressive play calling on early downs—especially play-action, quick game, and deep shots when matchups are favorable—can yield strong EPA because you are far from punting or field goal territory and have multiple chances to recover from an incompletion.
Red-zone decision-making
In the red zone, the field compresses and EP swings are steep. Sacks and penalties hurt more because they kick you out of easy field goal range. EPA highlights the value of avoiding negative plays inside the 20 and the benefit of schemed touches that create high-probability gains.
Reading EPA Charts and Reports
Many websites and broadcasts show EPA visuals. Understanding the basics helps you read them quickly.
Common visuals you will see
– EPA/play scatterplots: Teams plotted by offensive EPA/play (x-axis) and defensive EPA/play (y-axis). Upper-right offenses are strong; lower-left defenses are tough.
– Rolling EPA/play lines: A line chart of a team’s offensive EPA/play over weeks. Upward trends show improvement; dips reveal slumps or tough opponents.
– Play-by-play EPA bars: Each play’s EPA in order, often with color-coding for positive and negative plays. Big bars mark turning points like turnovers.
How to interpret quickly
If a team has a high offensive EPA/play and a negative defensive EPA/play (remember, negative is good for defense), you are probably looking at a contender. If a quarterback has a strong EPA per dropback over hundreds of attempts, that is usually a sign of efficient passing and smart decision-making.
Common Pitfalls and Caveats
EPA is powerful, but it is not perfect, and it does not tell the whole story on its own.
Different models, different numbers
Not all EP models are built the same. Some include score differential and timeouts; others focus more on down, distance, and field position. Era, rules changes, and league trends affect baselines. If two sites show slightly different EPA numbers for the same play, it may be due to model differences. The big picture usually remains the same.
Garbage time and situational effects
EPA can be inflated or deflated by garbage time when one team leads by a lot and the opponent softens coverages. Some analysts filter EPA for “neutral situations” (for example, early downs in the first three quarters of one-score games) to get a cleaner signal of true efficiency.
Strength of schedule
Facing top defenses can drag down offensive EPA, while easy schedules can boost it. To compare teams fairly, consider opponent adjustments or look at EPA splits by opponent quality.
Small samples and volatility
One game or even a few games can be noisy. A couple of turnovers or long touchdowns can swing EPA wildly. Look for larger samples or rolling averages to form stronger conclusions.
Turnover luck and fumbles out of bounds
Turnovers are extremely valuable plays in EPA because they flip possession and field position. But not every tipped pass or fumble reflects repeatable skill. Be cautious about reading too much into small-sample turnover swings.
EPA by Play Type
Breaking down EPA by play type can answer specific questions about a team’s identity and efficiency.
Rush EPA vs. pass EPA
On average, passes tend to produce higher EPA than runs, but that can vary by team and situation. A rushing attack that consistently generates positive EPA on early downs is a weapon because it keeps the offense ahead of the chains. Conversely, if your rush EPA is deeply negative, you might be wasting downs.
Play-action and deep shots
Play-action passing often yields better EPA than straight dropbacks because linebackers and safeties hesitate. Deep shots can be volatile—big positives on completions, negatives on sacks or incompletions—but the overall expected value can still be strong if used wisely and protected well.
Screens and quick game
These are designed to minimize risk. EPA shows that quick throws that replace low-efficiency runs on early downs can keep you on schedule, especially against fierce pass rushes.
EPA on Special Teams
Special teams plays can swing EP dramatically despite being fewer in number.
Field goals and fourth downs
A made field goal sets the post-play EP to about 3.0, minus whatever kickoff situation follows in some models. A missed field goal often hands the opponent the ball with great field position, producing a big negative EPA for the kicking team. Fourth-down decisions to kick or go often hinge on these swings.
Punts and returns
A great punt that pins the opponent inside the 10 yields positive EPA for the punting team because it lowers the opponent’s expected points. A long return does the opposite. Blocked punts and muffed returns create massive EPA swings because they instantly flip field position and sometimes possession.
How EPA Drives Storylines
Because EPA accounts for situation, it naturally matches what fans feel as the game turns. That third-down conversion that keeps a late drive alive is a big EPA moment. That red-zone sack that forces a field goal instead of a touchdown is a big negative EPA moment for the offense. In post-game breakdowns, teams and players with the best EPA/play usually made the most high-leverage, chain-moving, or drive-saving plays.
EPA and explosive plays
Explosive gains create large positive EPA because they move the ball a long way and often cross thresholds (first downs, red zone, goal-to-go). Defenses that limit explosives tend to have better defensive EPA/play, even if they occasionally give up short gains.
EPA and avoiding disasters
Turnovers, sacks that kill drives, penalties that wipe out big gains—these are EPA killers. Good teams earn positive EPA not just by making big plays but by staying out of big trouble.
College vs. NFL: Does EPA Translate?
EPA is widely used in both the NFL and college football, but the baselines differ because the college game has different rules, wider talent gaps, and more varied offensive styles.
Key differences
– College offenses can be faster and more explosive, which can lift EP values in certain situations.
– Kicking games differ; college kickers are generally less consistent at long distances, changing EP around the 30–40 yard line.
– Tempo and hash marks affect field position leverage, sometimes changing the EP and EPA distribution compared to the NFL.
The concept is the same, but comparisons should remain within the league or level.
How to Calculate Simple EPA at Home
You do not need a supercomputer to get a feel for EPA. You can do rough calculations with a publicly available EP chart and a play-by-play log.
Step-by-step approach
1) Note the situation before the play: down, distance, yard line, time, and score.
2) Look up the EP for that situation using a published chart or calculator.
3) Record the outcome of the play: new down, new distance, new yard line, and whether possession changed.
4) Look up the EP of the new situation.
5) Subtract EP before from EP after to get EPA for that play.
6) Repeat and average across plays to get EPA/play for a drive, player, or game.
Worked mini-drive example
Drive start: 1st-and-10 at the offense’s 20 (EP ≈ 0.9).
Play 1: Pass complete for 12 yards to the 32. New EP ≈ 1.3. EPA = +0.4.
Play 2: Run for 3 yards to the 35. New EP ≈ 1.4. EPA = +0.1.
Play 3: Incomplete pass. New EP ≈ 1.1. EPA = −0.3.
Play 4: 3rd-and-7 pass for 8 yards to the 43. New EP ≈ 1.8. EPA = +0.7.
Total EPA on the drive so far = +0.9 across four plays. EPA/play = +0.225. You can see how third-down conversions drive much of the positive value.
Using EPA to Talk Smarter About Football
Once you get comfortable with EPA, it gives you a common language to discuss what matters most on the field. You can move beyond “we had more yards” or “the QB threw for 300” to ask whether those plays actually improved the team’s scoring chances. You can ask if early-down play calling generated positive EPA, if sacks or penalties cost the team crucial points, or if special teams quietly swung the game with hidden yardage.
Framing game takeaways with EPA
– Did the offense post positive EPA/play overall? That usually means efficient drives and good play sequencing.
– Was the defense negative in EPA/play allowed? That indicates they pushed the opponent backward in expectation, even if some yards were surrendered.
– Which moments had the biggest EPA swings? Those are your turning points—turnovers, fourth-down attempts, red-zone outcomes.
FAQ: Quick Answers to Common EPA Questions
Is EPA only for the NFL?
No. EPA is used in college and even by some high school analysts, though the models differ. Always compare EPA within the same level.
Does EPA include penalties?
Yes. If a penalty changes the down, distance, or field position, EP changes accordingly, and the play’s EPA reflects that. A holding call that wipes out a first down creates a negative EPA for the offense.
Does EPA account for clock and score?
Often yes, but it depends on the model. Some EP models include clock and score explicitly; others emphasize down, distance, and field position and handle time less directly. WPA is more directly tied to clock and score leverage.
What about kneel-downs?
Kneel-downs typically show small negative EPA for the offense on that play because they move the ball backward, but they increase win probability by bleeding clock. This is a great example of EPA versus WPA; kneels can be negative EPA but positive WPA.
Is EPA the same as expected goals (xG) in soccer?
Not exactly, but they are cousins. xG estimates the chance a shot becomes a goal. EPA estimates how many points a team is expected to score next from a situation and how a play changes that. Both try to measure value in context.
Can one player have good EPA but average counting stats?
Yes. A player might not pile up yards but could have high EPA by converting third downs, avoiding sacks and picks, and making timely plays. Conversely, empty yards in blowouts or on long third downs can look fine in the box score but weak in EPA.
Why do some people prefer EPA/play to passer rating?
EPA/play considers sacks and situational value and is not distorted by era-specific formulas. Passer rating ignores sacks and depends heavily on completion percentage. EPA/play better reflects the true outcomes of dropbacks.
A Few Practical Tips for New Fans
– When you watch a game, mentally note the down, distance, and field position before a play. Ask, “If we gain 5 here, is that actually helpful?” EPA will often agree with your gut.
– Pay special attention to third downs, red-zone plays, and turnovers. These are the big EPA swings that decide games.
– Look beyond raw yardage. Try to see if the offense stayed on schedule and created positive EPA on early downs.
– Remember sample size. A single blown coverage can boost a QB’s EPA in one game. Look at trends over weeks to judge consistency.
Putting It All Together
Let’s tie the pieces into a simple storyline. Offense A opens at its own 25. A first-down completion to the 40 bumps EP and yields positive EPA. A second-down run for no gain is a small negative. A third-and-10 conversion is a big positive. A sack near the fringe of field goal range is a big negative. A screen pass on 3rd-and-long that does not reach the sticks is a negative, even if it gains yards. A fourth-and-short conversion near midfield is a positive bet if it keeps EP high. Eventually, a well-timed deep shot breaks the game open and posts a huge EPA. Each of those plays mattered in a different way, and EPA is the common currency that measures them.
Conclusion
EPA—Expected Points Added—boils football down to its core objective: improving your chances to score next. By measuring how each play changes expected points, EPA captures the real value of on-field decisions in context. It explains why a two-yard run can be brilliant on 3rd-and-1 but empty on 3rd-and-5, why sacks and turnovers are so damaging, and why successful teams consistently produce positive EPA/play on offense while forcing negative outcomes on defense.
For fans, EPA is a friendly guide to smarter conversations about the game. For analysts and coaches, it is a practical tool for evaluating players, shaping strategy, and making choices on fourth down or in the red zone. Use EPA alongside other metrics—success rate, WPA, and opponent adjustments—to get a fuller picture. With a basic grasp of expected points and a few examples under your belt, you can watch football with fresh eyes, spot the hidden turning points, and understand exactly how and why each play moves the scoreboard closer—or farther—away.
That is what EPA means in football: a clear, context-aware measure of value that turns every snap into a meaningful signal about the path to points.